Press release 002/2007 PDF / 36 KB
By the end of this century, Germany may experience a noticeable general rise in temperatures due to climate change. This has been demonstrated by initial results of a regional climate model developed by Climate & Environment Consulting Potsdam GmbH (CEC) and commissioned by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA). The model calculations show a temperature rise of between 1.8 – and 2.3 degrees Celsius by the end of this century, compared to the 1961 – 1990 period. The rise in temperatures would be most pronounced in the north of Germany (away from the coastal regions) and in the foothills of the Alps. As far as precipitation is concerned, the picture is less uniform. There will be considerable regional differences: For example, calculations made by the researchers showed up to 50 % less precipitation for the north German lowlands, a region characterized by arid conditions already now. In contrast, an increase in average precipitation is expected for mountainous regions, above all in the winter season. Prof. Dr. Andreas Troge, President of the Federal Environment Agency: ”The model calculations exemplify the challenges we will probably face as a result of climate change. Awareness of this will help us prepare ourselves in time for these inevitable consequences. ”Using the climate projections now available from the WETTREG model (a regionalization method based on weather situations), it will be possible to better assess possible regional impacts of climate change in Germany and to identify those regions which might be particularly affected. However, climate models cannot predict the climate of the future. All they can do is to describe scenarios of a possible climatic development and thus, reveal risks associated with the regional climatic development.
The Potsdam researchers have based their WETTREG model calculations on two different scenarios for possible future emission levels of predominantly man-made greenhouse gases: The first one, referred to as the higher-emissions scenario is based, among other factors, on a globally oriented development characterized by strong economic growth and a continued use of the fossil fuels coal, oil and gas. Simultaneously, this scenario includes an increase in the share of climate-friendly renewable energies, such as biomass, wind and water power as well as geothermal energy. The second one, referred to as the lower-emissions scenario is based, among other conditions, on increased introduction of low-emission and resource-efficient technologies. However, even the lower-emissions scenario was found to be unable to prevent sudden climate changes and impending irreversible climate impacts.
Based on either of the above emission scenarios, the WETTREG climate model predicts markedly higher daily average temperatures in Germany by the end of this century. The higher-emissions scenario shows an increase in temperature by 2.3 degrees Celsius (German average) for the 2071 – 2100 period against the 1961 – 1990 period. In the lower-emissions scenario, the average temperature increase would still be 1.8 degrees Celsius. Researchers expect the warming to be most pronounced in the entire north of Germany – except the coastal regions – and in the foothills of the Alps. Warming will be less severe in the coastal regions of the North and Baltic Seas, the central low mountain ranges and the eastern part of Bavaria.
As regards precipitation, the WETTREG projections for the different regions show opposite trends in summer and winter for both emission scenarios: In summer, average precipitation in Germany will decrease by 22 per cent (higher-emissions scenario) or 17 per cent (lower-emissions scenario). Calculations for the north-east German lowlands show the strongest decrease in summertime precipitation, , i.e. by up to 50 per cent in the higher-emissions scenario. In addition, WETTREG found that in this region, the increase in wintertime precipitation would be below the average values.
In winter, average precipitation in Germany will increase by 30 per cent (higher-emissions scenario) or 19 per cent (lower-emissions scenario). This phenomenon will particularly affect the mountainous regions. The higher-emissions scenario shows maximum increases of up to 80 per cent in the Eifel and Hunsrück regions. Also in the regions of the Oden Forest, Spessart, Rhön and Lower Franconia, precipitation will increase by more than 70 per cent in some places.
Based on these new findings, the UBA sees an urgent need for a scientifically substantiated nationwide discussion - across all economic sectors - on the impacts of climate change and possibilities for adapting. The preparations for a ‘German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change’ which Federal Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel initiated in October 2006- provide a good platform for such a discussion.
More detailed information is provided by a background paper entitled ”Regional climate changes: Recent findings – WETTREG: A statistical regionalization model ”, available at <http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/uba-info-presse-e/hintergrund/climate-change.pdf>.
The complete study „Neuentwicklung von regional hoch aufgelösten Wetterlagen für Deutschland und Bereitstellung regionaler Klimaszenarien mit dem Regionalisierungsmodell WETTREG 2005 auf der Basis von globalen Klimasimulationen mit ECHAM5/MPI – OM T63L31 2010 bis 2100 für die SRES – Szenarien B1, A1B und A2” („Newly developed regional high-resolution weather models for Germany and provision of regional climate scenarios by means of the regionalization model WETTREG 2005 on the basis of global climate simulations using ECHAM5/MPI – OM T63L31, period 2010 to 2100, for the SRES scenarios B1, A1B and A2) (in German) is available at <http://www.umweltbundesamt.de/klimaschutz-e> .
Dessau, 29 January 2007